OPEC+ holds oil output steady as Iran war keeps Brent near $118

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday, November 1, to keep its production targets unchanged for December, as the war involving Iran keeps oil prices near their highest levels of the year.

Seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, agreed at a virtual meeting to "maintain September 2026 required production for December 2026". They did not announce further changes or a timetable for raising output.

Prices near seven-month highs

The decision came after a sharp rise in prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at almost $118 a barrel on Friday, up more than 2 percent on the day and the highest since April, as traders worried about escalation in the Iran war.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel between Iran and Oman through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil normally passes, has been effectively shut since fighting between the United States and Iran began on February 28.

Why OPEC+ matters less right now

Usually, OPEC+ decisions move markets because the group controls a large share of global supply. But with Gulf exports disrupted, many members are producing well below their quotas anyway.

"OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at the consultancy Rystad Energy.

Winners and losers

High prices are painful for oil-importing countries, raising fuel, transport and food costs. They are a windfall for producers outside the Gulf whose exports are flowing normally. Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, has seen its foreign reserves climb to an 18-year high as its crude sells at elevated prices.

What's next

OPEC+ meets again on November 29, when it is expected to set its framework for 2027. Leon called that the "much more important test". Before then, the group must finish a review of members' production capacity, which will set the baselines for future quotas.

The biggest factor for prices, however, lies outside OPEC+: whether talks between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar, can reopen Hormuz.