Skip to content
Newsheir
Politics

Midterms: Democrats favoured to win the House as Senate control remains a toss-up

With two days until Election Day, polls point to a Democratic House majority, but a cluster of close Senate races will decide who controls the chamber.

By Newsheir Staff, Newsroom

· 2 min read

ShareXLinkedInBlueskyEmail
In this article
  1. The House
  2. The Senate
  3. Races to watch
  4. The final weekend
  5. When results arrive

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. Final polls suggest Democrats are well placed to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate is too close to call.

The House

Democrats are widely seen as favourites to win a House majority. A forecast by Decision Desk HQ, cited by The Hill, gave them an 80 percent chance. "We can be fairly confident that Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear," one strategist told Al Jazeera.

The Senate

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Because Vice President JD Vance can break ties, Republicans keep control with 50 seats, which means Democrats need a net gain of four.

Public polling shows Democrats ahead in enough races to do that, but most of the leads are narrow and within the margin of error. Newsweek counted eight Senate races within four points in at least one polling average. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning the chamber, while Fox News's final power rankings still rate it a toss-up.

Races to watch

  • North Carolina is seen as Democrats' best pickup opportunity, according to The Hill.
  • Ohio: Fox News moved the race to "Lean Democrat", with former senator Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted.
  • Kansas: a Washington Post-Schar School poll had Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent, a surprise in a state Republicans have long dominated.
  • Texas: Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton.
  • Alaska, Michigan and Iowa are also expected to help decide the outcome. In Alaska, a legal fight over the race is still before the courts.

The final weekend

Trump was scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. Early voting has been at record levels in several states, and Democrats lead national polls.

When results arrive

The first polls close at 7pm Eastern Time on Tuesday and the last at 1am. Close races, especially in states that count mail ballots after Election Day, may take days to call, so the final balance of the Senate may not be known on election night.

Sources and references

  1. 1.2026 midterm elections: When polls close, when results are expected — The Hill
  2. 2.Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 3 Days Out — Newsweek
  3. 3.US midterms: 2 days to go — Al Jazeera
  4. 4.Senate control remains toss-up as Kansas, Ohio shift in 2026 polls — Fox News

AI disclosure This article was drafted with the help of AI tools and was reviewed, fact-checked and edited by our editors before publication. See our AI policy for details. How we use AI.

Spotted an error? Request a correction. Read our editorial standards.

Related coverage

Format: News